Survivor Cambodia Episode 1: Second Chance – Predictions

Bayon tribe on a raft

The Marooning… Again

I can’t tell you how excited I am for the next season of Survivor, Cambodia. 20 former contestants, most of whom I am a big fan of, all battling it out. I’ve been waiting for a proper all stars season, and was convinced they would have done it for their 30th. However, the extra year seems to have been worth the wait, as there is a fantastic cast for this season.

The first episode will be coming in less than a week, and we already know some information spoilers from pre-show media coverage. Nothing in this post will be a game spoiler, boot reveal, or anything of the like; it is simply information that Jeff Probst has revealed over the course of interviews.

Survival Instincts

It has been revealed that the game will start off with the two tribes being given the opportunity to raid a fishing boat, similar to the first season. Rather than give them a time limit, the tribes can spend the time they need to take supplies, but there is also a rationale to work quickly. Just off from the initial boat is a second boat with rice, the staple food supply of survivor. The first tribe there gets the rice, and once a tribe leaves the boat, they cannot come back.

I think Bayon will have some trouble with this first exercise. With a lot of more passive personalities, I expect that Andrew Savage will take command at this stage.  Savage proved himself to struggle in Pearl Islands when faced with the similar task of getting supplies from a village. Food was a scare resource for his tribe once before and it wouldn’t surprise me if Bayon jumps too early without some necessities, or at least without some key tools to help improve their camp.

On the flip side, I think Takeo will be a bit of a mess in this. With no time to plan and a lot of strong personalities, there will be a lot of bickering about what to grab and when to leave. Despite their lack of coordination, I think they will probably leave the boat well prepared, if not a little hungry for lack of rice.

Camp Life

Woo, Abi-Maria, Kelly Wentworth, Shirin, and Jeff Varner reading tree mailI’ve made it no secret that I expect Andrew Savage to emerge as the leader of the Bayon tribe, and I think in the premiere he will be a major focus. I expect Bayon to get to quick work setting up camp, but because of their quick departure from the fishing boat, I think that there is a good chance their camp will be lacking. I fully expect there to be a lot of confessionals of people bitching about it (Kass, Jeremy, Kimmi) but this early I think we won’t see any blowups over it specifically… except maybe Jeremy. I am expecting a confrontation by the second day between Kass and Kimmi. I think those two will get on eachother’s nerves very quickly this season. In terms of alliances, I expect to see a majority form with Savage at the head of it. Monica, Tasha, Jeremy, and Keith will round out the alliance. Joe will probably approach Monica as well for an alliance and I expect the little that we will see of Monica will consist of a lot of flirting with Joe.

Takeo, on the other hand, will be this year’s fun tribe. I imagine that with their experience, we will see a pretty spectacular shelter and camp life set up, and the tribe will have a much more laid back attitude. I think we will see a lot more strategy and scheming from the Takeo tribe, as alliances form early on. Jeff Varner is going to be playing a very strong game out of the gate and I expect him to start setting up multiple alliances. I could see him forming a majority voting block with Terry, Kelly, Woo, and Kelley. I think Shirin will immediately get on the nerves of her tribe mates, but will flock towards Peih-Gee out of a misplaced kinship for having been an underdog on both their seasons. Peih-Gee on the other hand, I expect to form a close relationship with Vytas on this tribe. I could see Vytas being on friendly terms with most of his tribe, forming bonds with Terry, Woo, and Kelley Wentworth. Surprisingly, I think Abi-Maria could fly a bit under the radar over the first few days, holding her tongue and her temper (to my dismay.)

Survivor Cambodia: The Quest For Fire

Preseason interviews have revealed what the first challenge will be, and they will be doing a new and updated version of the classic quest for fire challenge. Typical of first immunity challenges, flint will probably be offered as a reward for the winner.

The end of the new version of this challenge is the classic castaways caught in a locked box. This has often been a make or break challenge in past season and I expect it to be the linchpin of this as well. My money is on Takeo for this challenge and I’m predicting that they will win the first immunity challenge of Cambodia.

The Tribe has Spoken

The first vote of the season will be a surprise to the castaways, but due to preseason press it is less of a surprise to us. It will be held immediately following the immunity challenge, giving the losing tribe no time to scramble and decide on votes. Because of this, preseason alliances will play a much more major role than they may have otherwise. This also puts obvious targets at a significant disadvantage.

Kass McQuillin will find herself in hot water because of this. In a post-loss camp she may be able to appeal to her goat status, or cast attention towards another tribe mate. Unfortunately, she becomes an obvious choice for a tribe that hasn’t had a lot of time to strategize. In the tribal council that immediately follows the challenge, I expect we will hear a lot from Jeff asking “if it’s harder this time around” and “playing with a different caliber of players”, but it will end with him telling Kas that “the tribe has spoken”.

Unless we have redemption island, then my whole boot order is fucked.

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  1. ChaosCambodia

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